- Roborock’s RMB 100 billion ambition is a target, not an achieved revenue figure.
- Sustained growth will depend on moving beyond single-category robot vacuum competition.
- Global channels, product breadth and platform capability will decide whether the target is realistic.
Roborock aims to achieve RMB 10 billion in sales by 2030.
This is not an exaggeration; it's a reality that is unfolding. In their Hong Kong Stock Exchange prospectus for 2025, Roborock outlined their goals for the next five years. A prospectus is a legal document that companies submit to exchanges before listing, detailing potential risks to assist investors in making informed decisions.
If there were any falsification or misleading information in the prospectus, it could lead to collective lawsuits. Therefore, performance predictions and other details are typically conservative here.
We will now closely examine Roborock's likely achievements over the next few years.
In 2024, Roborock's sales reached $1.19 billion, accounting for 12.3% of the global market.
For 2025, Roborock expects to capture 14.5% of a projected $19.1 billion global market, translating to approximately RMB 193.87 billion at an exchange rate of 7. To achieve this target, the company would need to see a full-year growth of 65%. This growth rate has never been seen in Roborock's previous years and is it feasible?
Now that the third quarter financial report for 2025 has been released, the total sales for the first three quarters amount to RMB 12 billion, marking a year-over-year growth of 72.2%. If this growth rate is maintained in the fourth quarter, the full-year sales for 2025 will reach RMB 202 billion, surpassing the original target of RMB 193 billion.
Previously, many broker friends asked me why Roborock continuously increased its advertising efforts to boost sales at the expense of profit margins. I believe the core reason behind this strategy is that management has set a strategic goal and is actively pushing it forward, willing to sacrifice short-term profitability for long-term growth.
In 2026, Roborock expects to achieve 17.1% of the global market share in cleaning appliances, which at an exchange rate of 7 would be approximately RMB 282 billion. Assuming a sales target of RMB 200 billion for 2025, this represents a growth of about 40%. This growth rate is slightly slower than the overall 70% in 2025 but still significant. In 2026, the market size for robot vacuums will also see substantial growth.
By 2027, the global total for cleaning appliances will reach RMB 401 billion at an exchange rate of 7, representing a 40% increase from 282 billion in 2026. Roborock aims to capture 19.9% of this market.
In 2028, the global total for cleaning appliances will be RMB 552.9 billion at an exchange rate of 7, a 40% increase from 401 billion in 2027. Roborock's target is to capture 22.7% of this market.
By 2029, the global total for cleaning appliances will reach RMB 738 billion at an exchange rate of 7, a growth of about 33% from 553 billion in 2026.
If we assume a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40%, Roborock's sales could reach RMB 1.03 trillion by 2030.
By unraveling all these details, we find that what seemed like exaggerated figures are actually highly achievable.
Of course, there are several prerequisites:
- The global market for cleaning appliances is expected to grow by over 20% annually. This growth rate is unlikely in other appliance sectors but plausible in the cleaning appliance industry. The rapid rise of all-in-one docks and hard floor washers globally has just begun, supporting rapid industry development in the coming years.
- Roborock aims to achieve nearly a 70% year-over-year growth in 2025, followed by an annual growth rate of 40%. These numbers are daunting. The 70% growth for 2025 has already been largely realized; maintaining a 40% growth rate each subsequent year will meet the target. A 40% growth rate is terrifying and requires Roborock to continuously outpace competitors.
- By 2030, the global total sales of cleaning appliances may reach RMB 350 billion. This is not the end of the industry. By then, robot vacuum sales could reach over 40 million units, with hard floor washers at around 30 million units. Over the next five years (2035), these numbers might double again. At that point, the cleaning appliance market could be worth RMB 60-70 billion or even more, potentially reaching a trillion yuan.
Industry colleagues, we are witnessing history unfold before our eyes.
